Seyrio methodology
How Seyrio observes flight prices
Seyrio watches defined flight trips over time and records observed fares. A Seyrio price observation is a fare recorded for a defined flight search at a particular time. Comparing observations can show how the fare Seyrio recorded changed; it cannot predict what a future fare will do.
What is a price observation?
Each observation belongs to a particular flight search, an observation time and the currency in which the fare was observed. It records what Seyrio saw at that time. It is not a promise that the fare will still be available, a confirmed purchase or a recommendation to buy.
Seyrio checks monitored trips periodically. The number and timing of observations can vary, and a gap in a history does not mean the fare stayed the same.
What does “exact trip” mean?
A comparable price history keeps the defined search together: origin and destination airports, departure date, return date for a round trip, trip type, traveller and search assumptions, and observed currency. Other constraints that define the same search remain part of that comparison.
Seyrio does not treat prices for different travel dates as one continuous history. Fares for materially different trips are not silently pooled, and a fare in one currency is not presented as directly comparable with a fare in another.
What do the homepage numbers mean?
24-hour price movement
Across 3,678 same-market comparisons, the later observed fare was 24.6% cheaper, 47.6% similar or 27.7% more expensive than the earlier observation around the 24-hour boundary. “Similar” means a change within ±1%.
Question answered: how often was the later observed fare cheaper, similar or more expensive in these historical comparisons?
Monitoring-window evidence
In the corresponding historical eligible windows, Seyrio observed at least one fare lower than the starting observation:
- 24 HOURS
- 66%
- 3 DAYS
- 86%
- 7 DAYS
- 92%
Question answered: did any lower fare appear at least once during the whole window?
Why are the 24-hour numbers different?
The 24-hour movement analysis compares a later observation with an earlier one. The monitoring-window analysis checks whether any lower fare appeared during the entire window. They answer different questions and should not be compared as if they were the same statistic. Neither tells you the chance that your own flight will get cheaper.
Historical observations, not predictions
Historical observations describe what Seyrio recorded; they do not predict what a future fare will do. A lower fare observed for one trip does not mean another trip will follow the same pattern.
Seyrio observes fare information, not whether someone bought a ticket at that fare. An observed reduction is not a realized saving. Flight fares and availability can change, so an observed fare is not a guarantee that the same fare can be booked later. Recheck before booking.
Reading a public price history
Where Seyrio presents an approved public trip history, “Observed by Seyrio” identifies the source and “Last observed” gives the time of the latest recorded fare. Observation times matter because prices can move. The history describes only the approved observations for that defined trip and currency; coverage may differ between markets.
Public price evidence remains separate from a person’s private Flight Watch and its history. A public history does not include private Watch or contact information.